The guest commentary below was written by Sam Rahman, Portfolio Manager at Hedgeye Asset Management. Previously, Sam was a Senior PM for 15 years at Crosby Advisors, the Fidelity family office, where he worked directly for Fidelity Investments Founder & Chairman Ned Johnson and managed a multi‑billion‑dollar strategy focused on long‑term capital appreciation.​

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As we enter 2026 and take a moment to reflect on the past year, I thought I would share some more reflections of my career, a second chapter to a Musings piece I wrote in the summer. While each story is plucked from disparate moments in my past career, they are all seared in my memory for the lessons they imparted that I still carry to this day. Hopefully, you will see similar lessons in moments that have shaped your experiences. 

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Best wishes to you all in 2026. 

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To Live And Survive In Hong Kong

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If you were to ask me to visualize what the purest form of capitalism would look like, I would picture Hong Kong in my mind. I lived there from 1994 to 1995 as a research analyst for Baring Asset Management, learning about the economies in Southeast Asia in between writing investment copy for Barings’ huge marketing department back in London. It was an education, an assault on the senses, as I learned to dodge the humidity - in a suit - between skyscrapers, discovered what the pungent smell of fried tofu was on every street corner, and straddled the two worlds of the expat community and local HongKongers.

 

While the spectacular skyline on the harbor and luxury malls are something to behold, with a little exploration between the steel and glass canyons, I discovered a Hong Kong that offered a glimpse of what it must have been like when it emerged as the region’s trading conduit in the 1950s and 60s – stores lined with copycat luxury goods and floor-to-ceiling electronics in between restaurants displaying Peking duck and some of the best Cantonese food on the planet. 

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As much as I enjoyed partying in Lan Kwai Fong, I grew to love the local Hong Kong. Key to this was the friendship and affection I received from Barings’ local staff. As we slowly got to know each other, I was lucky enough to be invited to birthday parties, a local wedding, soccer games, and boat trips to visit several fishing villages scattered across islands off the coast. These experiences gave me an inside look at the lives of local friends and families, trying to make a living, surrounded by the multi-billion dollar financial industry that encompassed them on this tiny island. 

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What I learned: Through all my travels since, I have gone out of my way to find what is real in every place I visit - the culture, the history, and importantly, the people. The openness to discovery is as important in life, as it is in investing. 

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“You’re up, kid” 

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In 2004, after just three years as a PM, the CIO at Baring Asset Management, David Kiddie, asked me to lead the US investment team and take full responsibility of managing over a billion dollars of the firm’s US-focused AUM. Surprise and shock were followed by exhilaration, as I had always wanted to manage a team but never thought it would happen as soon as it did. Our performance at the time was poor – after some bad investment decisions following the bust of the dot.com bubble in 2000, our Growth and GARP strategies were deeply fourth quartile on three and five-year basis. David needed to see a wholesale change in investment approach and risk-taking and he thought that I might be able to bring a fresh look at how to improve stock picking and portfolio management. I had learned a lot about both from key mentors on our team and was eager to prove my worth. After three years, at the end of 2007, both strategies were first quartile on a three-year basis and then on a five-year basis when I eventually left in 2008. As important to me was how we did it: I made sure everyone in my team felt ownership of our process and our results. I made sure we all shared in the credit for our success, but I bore the full responsibility when investment mistakes were made. And I made sure it was fun. Through my early work experience I observed how to inspire people and how NOT to manage people, and I did not ever want to be in the latter category. 

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What I learned: While you might think you are not ready to take on a new challenge, if you get it early, don’t hesitate. Do it the way you dreamt of doing it and lead like you would want to be led. Also, throughout my career, I had valuable mentors and advocates who taught me everything I know and had faith in my ability before I knew I had it. To name a notable few: Chris Lees, Jim Baird, Joan Emberley, Will Braman, Bill Thomas, Mary Dunbrack, David Kiddie, Mark Latham, Ned Johnson, George Domolky, and Geoff Von Kuhn. Thank you. 

 

 

Interview With A Legend

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The final step of the recruiting process to join Crosby Advisors, the Johnson Family Office, was an interview with the then Chairman of Fidelity, Ned Johnson. How do you even start to prepare for an interview like this? It was an incredible opportunity, career-defining – They were looking to hire a new PM to come in and take over the management of the family’s public equity investments, with Mr. Johnson stepping back from day-to-day oversight. For me, the stakes were high, and I was feeling the pressure.

 

I prepared as much as I could, with stock ideas, a clear definition of my investment approach, and a list of mistakes I had made, and lessons learned from them. I arrived at 82 Devonshire Street on the day of the meeting, took a deep breath, said a prayer, and then went up the elevator to meet him in the dining room.

 

As much as I had read about him before our first meeting, it was still a surreal experience when he walked into the room and we shook hands. He was gracious in our early banter as we sat down, asking about my background and family, which put me at ease. When our discussion moved to investment ideas it was wider in range than I had expected. We talked about China and Asia, and I had an opportunity to talk about my experience in Hong Kong. Discussing technology, one of his favorite subjects, he spent a lot of time talking about how Fidelity was moving to a “thin client” compute architecture, what we would now term cloud computing. Luckily, I had invested in several companies in that supply chain, like IBM, Intel, ARM Holdings, and Marvell Technology and was able to give him a detailed account of each of the businesses. On the topic of energy, he spent most of the time talking about natural gas and its future as a core source of power. Remember, the shale revolution had just begun and no one knew how it would eventually transform the geopolitics of energy, turning the US into a natural gas superpower. But this was one example of many where he was ahead of the curve. Some of the best conversations we had over the subsequent 15 years centered on technology and energy, and his sharp knowledge on both always amazed me. 

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A couple of days after our meeting, I sent a thank you note on a postcard showing a famous 19th century Japanese print, “The Great Wave off Kanagawa” by artist Katsushika Hokusai. He was known for his love of Japanese art, and I hoped the thought would make a difference. To this day, I still don’t know whether he saw it, as I imagine he received hundreds of more important things every day. 

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After a couple of weeks of anxiety, I got the call I was hoping for, and that was the start of a fifteen plus year journey working for one of the greatest investors in our industry, until his unfortunate passing in late 2022. Over that time, through good and bad performance, he thanked me for my efforts and in the moments I had the opportunity, I thanked him for entrusting me with his money. If I could go back in time to our last meeting, I would want to thank him again for the opportunity and for making me a better investor. 

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What I learned: Be prepared and be yourself. If it’s meant to be, it will be. There is zero substitute for honesty – when I had a bad performance year, like 2008, that was on the first page of my presentation to him at the end of the year. If I did not know the answer to a question, I admitted to him that I did not know and that I would get back to him. Lastly, through my cumulative performance success over that time, I thought of only one thing – humility. You can learn this the easy way, or the market will teach it to you the hard way. 

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A Greek Tragedy, With A Happy Ending

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Shortly after the Global Financial Crisis had brought the US financial system to its knees, Europe underwent its own crisis in 2011 as a structurally flawed monetary system crashed into the massive fiscal imbalances of the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain). Greece was the poster child of the crisis, with its debt to GDP blowing out to over 170% and its 10-year bond yield peaking above 35%, compared to German yields at under 2%. There was plenty of finger pointing and blaming from the halls of power in Paris and Berlin, as Europe’s senior partners chastised their profligate junior partners.

  

Eventually, the crisis passed as an international bailout, debt relief, Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” speech, and structural reforms put Greece on the long road to stabilization and recovery. Fast forward to today, Greece has transformed. It’s debt to GDP is currently 147% and headed lower, and its bonds are yielding 3.5%, a mere 60bps above German yields. Ironically, it is France and Germany’s sovereign yields that are going in the wrong direction, with France on the verge of a fiscal crisis.

 

What I learned: Today’s pariah might be tomorrow’s crowd favorite. Greece was one of the best performing markets in Europe this past year. It is easy to write of basket case investments and walk away confidently feeling like it will never come back. Yes, things do go bust. But at the same time, today’s shorts may well be tomorrow’s multi-bagger. 

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In Bangkok, Before The Hangover 

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In the spring of 2013, I was attending CLSA’s Asian mid cap growth conference in Bangkok. I had about 15% of my portfolio in Asian stocks, a substantial out of benchmark bet, but down from an even larger 25% bet in Asian stocks in early 2009 just before global markets started their massive recovery off the GFC lows. Asia was the place to be as China’s massive fiscal and infrastructure stimulus was powering one of the greatest investment booms in modern times. The spillover effect in other Asian markets led to a consumption tailwind that drove a rapid rerating of consumer and real estate stocks. 

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On the first day of the conference I was struck by the attendance, not just of Asian investment specialists, but also analysts and PMs from Europe and the US. And almost every company presentation was standing room only, regardless of whether it was an Indonesian property company or a Filipino fast-food company. Even with rich forward multiples of 35-40 times or higher, the enthusiasm was unabashed. You could tell by the questions being asked by investors. 

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After I got back from the trip, I started selling my Asian holdings, eventually get out of all of them by the end of 2023. While it was not quite the top – that came in mid-2014 – there were enough red flags for me to start looking for the exits. Eventually, the China stock bubble burst in 2015 in one of the most dramatic declines I had seen in my career. 

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What I learned: they don’t ring a bell at market tops and manias can be intoxicating. There are always signs at tops and bottoms and spotting them is not easy. Experience and intuition, gathered over time, are invaluable in those moments. Coupled with a healthy respect for market signals, that invariably front run turning points, it greatly increases your odds of an orderly entry and exit of the rollercoaster before it’s too late. 

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Sincerely,

Sam Rahman – Portfolio Manager, Hedgeye Asset Management