1. For readers who've never heard of HECA — how would you describe the fund's approach in simple terms: what's it actually trying to do?

HECA is essentially trying to compound capital across market cycles while seeking to avoid the kind of large drawdowns that can permanently impair wealth. We can invest globally across asset classes, but we don't have to own everything. We let the macro environment and market signals tell us where we believe we're being compensated for taking risk.

2. When you look at markets, what indicators or signals do you pay attention to before anything else?

Two things are central: Quads and Signals.

Quads tell us where an economy sits based on whether real GDP growth and inflation are accelerating or decelerating. That gives us a fundamental roadmap for the types of assets that historically perform well or poorly in a particular macro environment.

Signals tell us what the market itself is doing. Hubble examines factors including rates of change in price, trading volume and volatility, as well as how far prices have diverged from trends across different durations.

Importantly, Signals generally receive roughly three times the weight of Quads in Hubble. So the macro forecast matters, but HECA isn't simply making a macro prediction and blindly positioning around it.

3. What is one market misconception you believe investors repeatedly fall for?

One misconception is that diversification means you always need to own some of everything. I don't think that's true. Diversification is a means of managing risk, not an obligation to hold unattractive assets. That's part of what we mean when we say HECA can "go anywhere, but not everywhere."

4. How often does the portfolio actually change, and what's the difference between a shift driven by genuine regime change versus short-term noise?

Hubble is recalculated every trading day, typically within an hour of the NYSE open. But that doesn't mean HECA trades the portfolio every day.

In fact, the process has an explicit bias toward inaction. Portfolio changes are generally gradual rather than abrupt, although the team remains willing to make major changes when macroeconomic or market developments justify them.

That's an important distinction: new information doesn't automatically catalyze a new position. A genuine regime shift should increasingly show up in both the fundamental Quad outlook and the market's price, volume, volatility and trend data.

5. One of the things that stands out about HECA is the focus on avoiding drawdowns or peak-to-trough declines exceeding 15%. What does that process actually look like day-to-day? What's the trigger that tells you it's time to de-risk?

Fifteen percent isn't a stop-loss where we suddenly wake up at a 14% drawdown and sell everything. The drawdown constraint influences how we manage the portfolio every day. We're continuously asking how much correlated downside risk we're taking and whether we're still being adequately compensated for it.

Every day, Hubble updates the relative risk/reward of the investment universe. That includes market momentum, price, volume and volatility alongside the evolving Quad outlook. As those conditions deteriorate, Hubble can cause individual exposures to become less attractive, allowing risk to be reduced incrementally rather than waiting for the portfolio to undergo or approach a 15% drawdown.

6. What's one behavioral trait you believe every PM absolutely needs to have — something you'd consider non-negotiable regardless of asset class or strategy?

Humility. Markets have a way of reminding you that conviction and correctness aren't the same thing. You need a process that allows you to recognize when the evidence has changed and change your positioning with it. 

7. Did you play any sports growing up, or follow one closely — and is there a lesson from that world that quietly shows up in how you think about risk today?

I'm a big tennis fan, and I think there's a useful parallel between tennis and investing. Charles Ellis called investing a "loser's game," and the basic idea is similar to tennis: if you consistently get the ball back over the net and avoid unforced errors, you put yourself in a very good position. Investing isn't about hitting a winner on every point. A lot of it is about avoiding the mistakes that can knock you out of the game—too much leverage, too much concentration, or too much confidence in something simply because it has been working. That's very much how I think about risk in HECA: remain disciplined, trust the process and the signals, and recognize that successful investing is ultimately probabilistic.

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